Updated Calculation for ECS and TCR
Every year I try to think of a way to update my simple calculations for ECS and TCR. My methods don't really change that much; they reflect updated data and become a little more complex. Make no mistake, they are simple calculations based on estimates of forcings, temperature and EEI using the energy balance equation. It doesn't compete with peer-reviewed studies by Sherwood[1] or the assessments of the IPCC. My intent with this is to show that the central estimates of the IPCC (and most climate models) are very consistent with empirical data. The first step in the calculating ECS and TCR values is assessing the earth's energy imbalance and collecting the relevant forcing data. Earth's Energy Imbalance There are several estimates for EEI to choose from, but I think the most conservative approach is to use an average value for the full time frame between 2005 and 2019, when observations become much more reliable. One study, Loeb et al 2021[2] estimated EEI to be 0.77 ...