Wood Romances

A couple months ago, I saw that the "Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024" (IGCC24) was published, which is an annual update on the state of global climate and how it is changing in response to human and natural forcings. The data provides the most up to date information on human emissions and associated changes in radiative forcings as well as an evaluation of the change in temperature. A graphical summary of this is below. From IGCC24 I thought it would be helpful to show how updated values for warming, EEI, and radiative forcings would impact calculations for Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS). Here's their accounting of the various natural and anthropogenic forcings. Note that s olar forcing in the diagram above is only for 2024 only and so disagrees with the accounting in the table below. Change in Radiative Forcing Forcer 1750-2024 CO2 2.33 ± 0.28 W/m² CH4 0.57 ± 0.11 W/m² N2O 0.23 ± 0.03 W/m² Halogenated GHGs 0.41 ± 0.08 W/m² Ozone 0.5 ± 0.25 W/m² Stratosphe...

Accounting for Climate Forcings Puts ECS Near 3 °C From ClimateBrink The so-called "Climate Working Group," hired by the Department of Energy to write what Roger Pielke Jr termed a "red team" response to climate science  (my initial response is here ) is predictably critical of the central scientific estimate for ECS. The first ECS estimate I know of was calculated by Arrhenius, who concluded that 2xCO2 would cause between 4-6°C warming. This value was revised downward by Gilbert Plass in the 1950s to ~3°C, and since the 1970s this has become the standard estimate. The IPCC currently says the likely range is 2.5-4.0°C, largely as a result of Sherwood et al 2020 (S22),[1] which is still to date the most comprehensive assessment of ECS (Sherwood's likely range was 2.6-3.9°C). There is a growing body of scientific literature arguing that recent observational evidence is more consistent with an ECS closer to 4°C, suggesting that the IPCC may be a bit conservative on...