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Showing posts with the label consensus

Contradictory Contrarian Claims, Part 3 - "There's No Consensus in Science"

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You often hear contrarians repeating mantras about there being "no consensus in science" or that "science is never settled," two related claims that I take to be nearly synonymous. Many examples could be given, but I'll offer a few (with links to the source so you can check up on me): "There is no consensus science. Consensus is group-think and is very dangerous in science. During the Little Ice Age, there was a consensus that witches caused bad weather, and so climate justice resulted in witch killings."  ( John Shewchuk ) "There is no consensus in science … science is about facts" ( John Coleman ) "Science is never settled." ( Matthew Wielicki ) "The minute you hear the science is settled, you know something is wrong. Science is never settled." ( Richard Lindzen ) It's common enough that sometimes you see it dressed up in pretty memes, like this one with a quote from Michael Crichton. I haven't decided yet if i...

On the Nature and Value of Consensus

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About 20 years ago, I remember participating in a meeting where participants were actively debating a proposition. The moderator was enforcing parliamentary procedure, and speeches for and against the proposition were heard in turn - one speech for, then one speech against. This being the first meeting I had been in following this kind of procedure, I began to think that the room was evenly divided between the two positions. I was strongly in favor of it, and I was disheartened to see so much opposition to it. But when the vote was finally taken, I was more surprised by the results. The proposition passed by an extraordinarily large margin. In fact, it appeared that those speaking against the proposition made up almost all the people that voted against it, and the vast majority of the people in the room were like me. Most of us had essentially made up our minds, and we had no intention of making any speeches; we were just waiting for the debate to be over so we could vote.  My impr...