Wood Romances

Most of the annual GMST temperature data is in for 2025, and as expected, it was essentially a statistical tie with 2023 for the 2nd and 3rd the warmest year on record. La Niña conditions developed in 2025 which prevented it from competing with 2024.  Above, here's how 2025 looks in several major datasets, and I added the recently published DCENT-I surface temperature dataset. I put the 2-sigma uncertainties for HadCRUT5 in dotted lines. This graph is set to the 1951-1980 mean (left scale), and this allows you to see that most of the variability between the datasets occurs in the late 19th century. The right scale is offset to show the warming above the 1850-1900 baseline for HadCRUT5 with the 1.5°C target as a dotted horizontal line. Below I set the same data to the 1850-1900 baseline and plotted centered 30-year means from HadCRUT5; this has the effect of better showing warming for each dataset above this baseline (though variability between the datasets artificially shows u...

The 2025 Global Carbon Budget was just released. The data included in the report goes from 1750 to 2024, since the report was published before the end of 2025. Below "FFI" stands for fossil fuels and industry and "LUC" stands for land use change . I'm not including uncertainties in my graphs below for the sake of keeping the graphs readable, but the uncertainties are discussed in the report linked at the bottom of this post. 2025 Carbon Budget Atmospheric CO2 (aCO2) Carbon Mass CO2 Equiv. Significance aCO2 (1750) 591 GtC 278 ppm Preindustrial aCO2 in 1750 aCO2 Growth (1750 - 2024) 312 GtC 147 ppm 34.6% of aCO2 in 2024 aCO2 (2024) 903 GtC 424 ppm 52.9% increase in aCO2 above 1750 Human Carbon Emissions (FFI & LUC) 752 GtC 353 ppm 2.41x greater than aCO2 Growth aCO2 (1750) + Carbon Emissions 1343 GtC 631 ppm What aCO2 would be without land/ocean sinks Human Contribution to Land/Ocean Sinks 440 GtC 207 ppm 58.5% of human emissions goes to land/ocean sinks Hum...