Wood Romances

Note: I updated this in 2024 to include 2023 data. In a previous post , I covered the distinction between detection and attribution. These calculations are normally considered sequentially. First you detect a signal above natural variability, then you examine if some portion of that signal can be attributed to human activity. The previous post shows that the two are statistically independent from each other, so there is no need to limit attribution studies to signals that are detectable above natural variability. This distinction and clarification I think is important in any evaluation of tropical cyclone trends. While trends are clear since the satellite era (1980 on), the longer term record (since ~1850-1900) is less clear due to selection biases arising from our increasing ability to detect tropical cyclones. This makes detection difficult long term, but that doesn't necessarily mean that scientists can't identify human factors that affect tropical cyclone trends. In this p...