Paleoclimate Literature
Here is a reference list for paleoclimate literature. As you move down the list, I "zoom in" on smaller portions of the geologic time table. I start with the literature covering the entire Phanerozoic, then the Cenozoic, and finally the Quaternary. Some papers may have relevance in more than one section. I tried not to include duplicates, but I may have missed some.
Phanerozoic
[1] Robert A. Berner, “Geocarb III: A Revised Model of Atmospheric CO2 Over Phanerozoic Time,” American Journal of Science 300 (2001):182-204.
http://earth.geology.yale.edu/~ajs/2001/Feb/qn020100182.pdf
[2] Dana L. Royer, “CO2 as a primary driver of Phanerozoic climate” GSA Today 14.3 (2004): 4-10.
doi: 10.1130/1052-5173(2004)014<4:CAAPDO>2.0.CO;2.
https://www.geosociety.org/gsatoday/archive/14/3/pdf/i1052-5173-14-3-4.pdf
[3] Robert A. Berner, “GEOCARBSULF: A combined model for Phanerozoic atmospheric O2 and CO2” Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 70 (2006): 5653–5664.
http://www.image.ucar.edu/idag/Papers/Berner_phanozericO2.pdf
[4] D. L. Royer, “Atmospheric CO2 and O2 During the Phanerozoic: Tools, Patterns, and Impacts,” in Farquhar, J., editor, The Atmosphere-History: Oxford, Elsevier, Treatise on Geochemistry (Second Edition), v. 6, p. 251–267.
https://web.archive.org/web/20181222151221/http://droyer.web.wesleyan.edu:80/Royer_2014_Treatise.pdf
[5] D. L. Royer, “CO2-forced climate thresholds during the Phanerozoic “ Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 70 (2006) 5665–5675.
http://www.eeenergia.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/CO2-forced-climate-thresholds-during-the-Phanerozoic-DRoyer.pdf
[6] Royer and Berner (2007), “Climate sensitivity constrained by CO2 concentrations over the past 420 million years” Nature 446(7135):530-2. DOI: 10.1038/nature05699
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/6416974_Climate_sensitivity_constrained_by_CO2_concentrations_over_the_past_420_million_years
[7] Dana L. Royer, “Climate Sensitivity during the Phanerozoic: Lessons for the Future,” Search and Discovery Article #110115 (2009).
http://www.searchanddiscovery.com/documents/2009/110115royer/ndx_royer.pdf
[8] Franks, P. J. et al. “New constraints on atmospheric CO2 concentration for the Phanerozoic.” Geophysical Research Letters 41 (2014): 4685–4694.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014GL060457
[9] Emily J. Judd et al., A 485-million-year history of Earth’s surface temperature. Science 385,eadk3705 (2024).DOI:10.1126/science.adk3705
[10] Kemp, D., Eichenseer, K. & Kiessling, W. Maximum rates of climate change are systematically underestimated in the geological record. Nat Commun 6, 8890 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms9890
[10] Kemp, D., Eichenseer, K. & Kiessling, W. Maximum rates of climate change are systematically underestimated in the geological record. Nat Commun 6, 8890 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms9890
[11] C. R. Witkowski, J. W. H. Weijers, B. Blais, S. Schouten, J. S. Sinninghe Damsté, Molecular fossils from phytoplankton reveal secular Pco2 trend over the Phanerozoic. Sci. Adv. 4, eaat4556 (2018). doi:10.1126/sciadv.aat4556
[12] James W.B. Rae, Yi Ge Zhang, Xiaoqing Liu, Gavin L. Foster, Heather M. Stoll, Ross D.M. Whiteford. "Atmospheric CO2 over the Past 66 Million Years from Marine Archives." Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 2021 49:1, 609-641.
https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/full/10.1146/annurev-earth-082420-063026
[13] Benjamin J.W. Mills, Alexander J. Krause, Christopher R. Scotese, Daniel J. Hill, Graham A. Shields, Timothy M. Lenton. Modelling the long-term carbon cycle, atmospheric CO2, and Earth surface temperature from late Neoproterozoic to present day, Gondwana Research 67 (2019): 172-186. ISSN 1342-937X. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gr.2018.12.001
[1] The Cenozoic CO2 Proxy Integration Project (CenCO2PIP) Consortium, Toward a Cenozoic history of atmospheric CO2. Science 382,eadi5177(2023). DOI:10.1126/science.adi5177. Accepted version online at: https://oro.open.ac.uk/94676/1/Accepted_manuscript_combinepdf.pdf
[2] The Cenozoic CO2 Proxy Integration Project (CenCO2PIP) Consortium, Toward a Cenozoic history of atmospheric CO2. Science 382,eadi5177(2023). DOI:10.1126/science.adi5177. Accepted version online at: https://oro.open.ac.uk/94676/1/Accepted_manuscript_combinepdf.pdf
[3] Jessica E. Tierney et al. ,Past climates inform our future. Science 370, eaay3701(2020). DOI:10.1126/science.aay3701
[4] Joost Frielinga et al, "Thermogenic methane release as a cause for the long duration of the PETM" PNAS 113 no 43 (October 25, 2016) 12059–12064
www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1603348113
[5] Alexander Gehler et al, "Temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration estimates through the PETM using triple oxygen isotope analysis of mammalian bioapatite" PNAS 113 no 28 (July 12, 2016): 7739-7744.
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1518116113
[6] Marcus Gutjahr et al, "Very large release of mostly volcanic carbon during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum" Nature. 548/7669 (August 30, 2017): 573–577
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1n988123
[7] McInerney, F. A. and S. Wing. “The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum: A Perturbation of Carbon Cycle, Climate, and Biosphere with Implications for the Future.” Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 39 (2011): 489-516.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/234145841_The_Paleocene-Eocene_Thermal_Maximum_A_Perturbation_of_Carbon_Cycle_Climate_and_Biosphere_with_Implications_for_the_Future
[8] Stokke, E. W., Jones, M. T., Tierney, J. E., Svensen, H. H., & Whiteside, J. H. (2020). Temperature changes across the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum – a new high-resolution TEX86 temperature record from the Eastern North Sea Basin. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 544. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X20303320
[9] Zhu, J., Poulsen, C., & Tierney, J. (2019). Simulation of Eocene extreme warmth and high climate sensitivity through cloud feedbacks. Science Advances, 5(9). Retrieved from https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/9/eaax1874
[10] Keller, Gerta, et al. "Environmental changes during the Cretaceous-Paleogene mass extinction and Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum: implications for the Anthropocene." Gondwana Research 56 (2018): 69-89.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1342937X17303702
[11] J.E. Tierney, J. Zhu, M. Li, A. Ridgwell, G.J. Hakim, C.J. Poulsen, R.D.M. Whiteford, J.W.B. Rae, L.R. Kump, (2022) Spatial patterns of climate change across the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 119 (42) e2205326119,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2205326119.
[12] Yuqi Wu, Tao Hu, Fujie Jiang, Jing Guo, Feilong Wang, Zhenguo Qi, Renda Huang, Zhou Fang, Xiaowei Zheng, Di Chen, Lacustrine records of Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) triggered by volcanic activity, Organic Geochemistry, Volume 200, 2025, 104899, ISSN 0146-6380,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orggeochem.2024.104899.
(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0146638024001645)
[13] Qinghai Zhang, Ines Wendler, Xiaoxia Xu, Helmut Willems, Lin Ding, Structure and magnitude of the carbon isotope excursion during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum, Gondwana Research, Volume 46, 2017, Pages 114-123,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gr.2017.02.016.
(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1342937X17301417)
[14] Morgan F. Schaller et al. Impact ejecta at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary. Science 354, 225-229 (2016). DOI:10.1126/science.aaf5466
[15] Svensen, H., Planke, S., Malthe-Sørenssen, A. et al. Release of methane from a volcanic basin as a mechanism for initial Eocene global warming. Nature 429, 542–545 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02566
[16] Philip A. E. Pogge von Strandmann et al., Lithium isotope evidence for enhanced weathering and erosion during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.Sci. Adv. 7 ,eabh4224 (2021). DOI:10.1126/sciadv.abh4224
[17] Secord R, Gingerich PD, Lohmann KC, Macleod KG. Continental warming preceding the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum. Nature. 2010;467(7318):955-958. doi:10.1038/nature09441
[18] Londono et al, "Early Miocene CO2 estimates from a Neotropical fossil leaf assemblage exceed 400 ppm." Am J Bot. 2018 Nov;105(11):1929-1937.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30418663
[19] Panieri et all, "Methane seepages recorded in benthic foraminifera from Miocene seep carbonates, Northern Apennines (Italy)" Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology. Volume 284, Issues 3–4, 30 December 2009, Pages 271-282
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0031018209004246
[20] Zuoling Chen, Xu Wang, Jianfang Hu, Shiling Yang, Min Zhu, Xinxin Dong, Zihua Tang, Ping'an Peng, Zhongli Ding, Structure of the carbon isotope excursion in a high-resolution lacustrine Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum record from central China, Earth and Planetary Science Letters,
Volume 408, 2014, Pages 331-340.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2014.10.027.
(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X14006542)
https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/full/10.1146/annurev-earth-082420-063026
[13] Benjamin J.W. Mills, Alexander J. Krause, Christopher R. Scotese, Daniel J. Hill, Graham A. Shields, Timothy M. Lenton. Modelling the long-term carbon cycle, atmospheric CO2, and Earth surface temperature from late Neoproterozoic to present day, Gondwana Research 67 (2019): 172-186. ISSN 1342-937X. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gr.2018.12.001
Cenozoic
[2] The Cenozoic CO2 Proxy Integration Project (CenCO2PIP) Consortium, Toward a Cenozoic history of atmospheric CO2. Science 382,eadi5177(2023). DOI:10.1126/science.adi5177. Accepted version online at: https://oro.open.ac.uk/94676/1/Accepted_manuscript_combinepdf.pdf
[3] Jessica E. Tierney et al. ,Past climates inform our future. Science 370, eaay3701(2020). DOI:10.1126/science.aay3701
[4] Joost Frielinga et al, "Thermogenic methane release as a cause for the long duration of the PETM" PNAS 113 no 43 (October 25, 2016) 12059–12064
www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1603348113
[5] Alexander Gehler et al, "Temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration estimates through the PETM using triple oxygen isotope analysis of mammalian bioapatite" PNAS 113 no 28 (July 12, 2016): 7739-7744.
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1518116113
[6] Marcus Gutjahr et al, "Very large release of mostly volcanic carbon during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum" Nature. 548/7669 (August 30, 2017): 573–577
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1n988123
[7] McInerney, F. A. and S. Wing. “The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum: A Perturbation of Carbon Cycle, Climate, and Biosphere with Implications for the Future.” Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 39 (2011): 489-516.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/234145841_The_Paleocene-Eocene_Thermal_Maximum_A_Perturbation_of_Carbon_Cycle_Climate_and_Biosphere_with_Implications_for_the_Future
[8] Stokke, E. W., Jones, M. T., Tierney, J. E., Svensen, H. H., & Whiteside, J. H. (2020). Temperature changes across the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum – a new high-resolution TEX86 temperature record from the Eastern North Sea Basin. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 544. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X20303320
[9] Zhu, J., Poulsen, C., & Tierney, J. (2019). Simulation of Eocene extreme warmth and high climate sensitivity through cloud feedbacks. Science Advances, 5(9). Retrieved from https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/9/eaax1874
[10] Keller, Gerta, et al. "Environmental changes during the Cretaceous-Paleogene mass extinction and Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum: implications for the Anthropocene." Gondwana Research 56 (2018): 69-89.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1342937X17303702
[11] J.E. Tierney, J. Zhu, M. Li, A. Ridgwell, G.J. Hakim, C.J. Poulsen, R.D.M. Whiteford, J.W.B. Rae, L.R. Kump, (2022) Spatial patterns of climate change across the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 119 (42) e2205326119,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2205326119.
[12] Yuqi Wu, Tao Hu, Fujie Jiang, Jing Guo, Feilong Wang, Zhenguo Qi, Renda Huang, Zhou Fang, Xiaowei Zheng, Di Chen, Lacustrine records of Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) triggered by volcanic activity, Organic Geochemistry, Volume 200, 2025, 104899, ISSN 0146-6380,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orggeochem.2024.104899.
(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0146638024001645)
[13] Qinghai Zhang, Ines Wendler, Xiaoxia Xu, Helmut Willems, Lin Ding, Structure and magnitude of the carbon isotope excursion during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum, Gondwana Research, Volume 46, 2017, Pages 114-123,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gr.2017.02.016.
(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1342937X17301417)
[14] Morgan F. Schaller et al. Impact ejecta at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary. Science 354, 225-229 (2016). DOI:10.1126/science.aaf5466
[15] Svensen, H., Planke, S., Malthe-Sørenssen, A. et al. Release of methane from a volcanic basin as a mechanism for initial Eocene global warming. Nature 429, 542–545 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02566
[16] Philip A. E. Pogge von Strandmann et al., Lithium isotope evidence for enhanced weathering and erosion during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.Sci. Adv. 7 ,eabh4224 (2021). DOI:10.1126/sciadv.abh4224
[17] Secord R, Gingerich PD, Lohmann KC, Macleod KG. Continental warming preceding the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum. Nature. 2010;467(7318):955-958. doi:10.1038/nature09441
[18] Londono et al, "Early Miocene CO2 estimates from a Neotropical fossil leaf assemblage exceed 400 ppm." Am J Bot. 2018 Nov;105(11):1929-1937.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30418663
[19] Panieri et all, "Methane seepages recorded in benthic foraminifera from Miocene seep carbonates, Northern Apennines (Italy)" Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology. Volume 284, Issues 3–4, 30 December 2009, Pages 271-282
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0031018209004246
[20] Zuoling Chen, Xu Wang, Jianfang Hu, Shiling Yang, Min Zhu, Xinxin Dong, Zihua Tang, Ping'an Peng, Zhongli Ding, Structure of the carbon isotope excursion in a high-resolution lacustrine Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum record from central China, Earth and Planetary Science Letters,
Volume 408, 2014, Pages 331-340.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2014.10.027.
(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X14006542)
[21] Omta, A.W., Follett, C.L., Lauderdale, J.M. et al. Carbon isotope budget indicates biological disequilibrium dominated ocean carbon storage at the Last Glacial Maximum. Nat Commun 15, 8006 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-52360-z
[22] Alley RB, Clark PU, Huybrechts P, Joughin I. Ice-sheet and sea-level changes. Science. 2005 Oct 21;310(5747):456-60. doi: 10.1126/science.1114613. PMID: 16239468.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16239468/
[23] M. Robinson, “Pliocene Role in Assessing Future Climate Impacts” Eos 89, No. 49 (2008). https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2008EO490001
[24] Julie Brigham-Grette, “Pliocene Warmth, Polar Amplification, and Stepped Pleistocene Cooling Recorded in NE Arctic Russia” Science 340 (June 21, 2013).
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/340/6139/1421
[5] Stephanie Paige Ogburn etal. “Ice-Free Arctic in Pliocene, Last Time CO2 Levels above 400 PPM: Sediment cores from an undisturbed Siberian lake reveal a warmer, wetter Arctic.” SA
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ice-free-arctic-in-pliocene-last-time-co2-levels-above-400ppm/
[25a] Rhian L.Rees-Owen. “The last forests on Antarctica: Reconstructing flora and temperature from the Neogene Sirius Group, Transantarctic Mountains” Organic Geochemistry Volume 118, April 2018, Pages 4-14
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014663801730219X
[25b] Damian Carrington, “Last time CO2 levels were this high, there were trees at the South Pole.” The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/apr/03/south-pole-tree-fossils-indicate-impact-of-climate-change
[26] Pearson, P., Foster, G. & Wade, B. Atmospheric carbon dioxide through the Eocene–Oligocene climate transition. Nature 461, 1110–1113 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08447
[27] "New CO2 data helps unlock the secrets of Antarctic formation."
https://phys.org/news/2009-09-co2-secrets-antarctic-formation.htm
[28] Clark, P. U., Shakun, J. D., Marcott, S. A., Mix, A. C., Eby, M., Kulp, S., … Plattner, G.-K. (2016). Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change. Nature Climate Change, 6(4), 360–369. doi:10.1038/nclimate2923
[29] James W.B. Rae, Yi Ge Zhang, Xiaoqing Liu, Gavin L. Foster, Heather M. Stoll, Ross D.M. Whiteford. "Atmospheric CO2 over the Past 66 Million Years from Marine Archives." Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 2021 49:1, 609-641.
https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/full/10.1146/annurev-earth-082420-063026
[22] Alley RB, Clark PU, Huybrechts P, Joughin I. Ice-sheet and sea-level changes. Science. 2005 Oct 21;310(5747):456-60. doi: 10.1126/science.1114613. PMID: 16239468.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16239468/
[23] M. Robinson, “Pliocene Role in Assessing Future Climate Impacts” Eos 89, No. 49 (2008). https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2008EO490001
[24] Julie Brigham-Grette, “Pliocene Warmth, Polar Amplification, and Stepped Pleistocene Cooling Recorded in NE Arctic Russia” Science 340 (June 21, 2013).
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/340/6139/1421
[5] Stephanie Paige Ogburn etal. “Ice-Free Arctic in Pliocene, Last Time CO2 Levels above 400 PPM: Sediment cores from an undisturbed Siberian lake reveal a warmer, wetter Arctic.” SA
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ice-free-arctic-in-pliocene-last-time-co2-levels-above-400ppm/
[25a] Rhian L.Rees-Owen. “The last forests on Antarctica: Reconstructing flora and temperature from the Neogene Sirius Group, Transantarctic Mountains” Organic Geochemistry Volume 118, April 2018, Pages 4-14
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014663801730219X
[25b] Damian Carrington, “Last time CO2 levels were this high, there were trees at the South Pole.” The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/apr/03/south-pole-tree-fossils-indicate-impact-of-climate-change
[26] Pearson, P., Foster, G. & Wade, B. Atmospheric carbon dioxide through the Eocene–Oligocene climate transition. Nature 461, 1110–1113 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08447
[27] "New CO2 data helps unlock the secrets of Antarctic formation."
https://phys.org/news/2009-09-co2-secrets-antarctic-formation.htm
[28] Clark, P. U., Shakun, J. D., Marcott, S. A., Mix, A. C., Eby, M., Kulp, S., … Plattner, G.-K. (2016). Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change. Nature Climate Change, 6(4), 360–369. doi:10.1038/nclimate2923
[29] James W.B. Rae, Yi Ge Zhang, Xiaoqing Liu, Gavin L. Foster, Heather M. Stoll, Ross D.M. Whiteford. "Atmospheric CO2 over the Past 66 Million Years from Marine Archives." Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 2021 49:1, 609-641.
https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/full/10.1146/annurev-earth-082420-063026
Quaternary
Glacial Cycles
[1] Petit, Jean Robert et al (1999): Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature, 399(6735), 429-436, https://doi.org/10.1038/20859
[2] Muscheler, R., Beer, J., Kubik, P. W., & Synal, H.-A. (2005). Geomagnetic field intensity during the last 60,000 years based on 10Be and 36Cl from the Summit ice cores and 14C. Quaternary Science Reviews, 24(16–17), 1849–1860.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2005.01.012
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2005.01.012
[3] Fischer, N. and Jungclaus, J. H.: Effects of orbital forcing on atmosphere and ocean heat transports in Holocene and Eemian climate simulations with a comprehensive Earth system model, Clim. Past, 6, 155–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-155-2010, 2010.
[4] Friedrich et al, "Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming," Sci. Adv. 2.11 (2016): e1501923.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/309791338_Nonlinear_climate_sensitivity_and_its_implications_for_future_greenhouse_warming
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/309791338_Nonlinear_climate_sensitivity_and_its_implications_for_future_greenhouse_warming
[5] Snyder, C. W. (2016). Evolution of global temperature over the past two million years. Nature, 538(7624), 226–228. doi:10.1038/nature19798. https://www.nature.com/articles/nature19798
[6] Stips, A., Macias, D., Coughlan, C. et al. On the causal structure between CO2 and global temperature. Sci Rep 6, 21691 (2016).
https://www.nature.com/articles/srep21691
https://www.nature.com/articles/srep21691
[7a] M. Willeit, A. Ganopolski, R. Calov, and V. Brovkin, "Mid-Pleistocene transition in glacial cycles explained by declining CO2 and regolith removal", Science Advances, vol. 5, pp. eaav7337, 2019.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aav7337
http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/4/eaav7337
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aav7337
http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/4/eaav7337
[7b] M. Willeit, “First successful model simulation of the past 3 million years of climate change” Realclimate, 2 April 2019.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2019/04/first-successful-model-simulation-of-the-past-3-million-years-of-climate-change/
[8] Sun, Y., Yin, Q., Crucifix, M. et al. Diverse manifestations of the mid-Pleistocene climate transition. Nat Commun 10, 352 (2019).
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-08257-9
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-08257-9
65. Davi NK, D'Arrigo R, Jacoby GC, Cook ER, Anchukaitis K, et al.: A long-term context (931–2005 C.E.) for rapid warming over Central Asia. Quaternary Sci Rev 121:89–97, 2015. dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.05.020.
66. Luterbacher J, Werner JP, Smerdon JE, Fernández-Donado L, González-Rouco FJ, et al.: European summer temperatures since Roman times. Environ Res Lett 11(2):024001, 2016. dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024001.
67. Gergis J, Neukom R, Gallant AJE, & Karoly DK: Australasian Temperature Reconstructions Spanning the Last Millennium. J Climate 29(15):5365–5392, 2016. dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00781.1.
68. Jaume-Santero F, Pickler C, Beltrami H, & Mareschal J-C: North American regional climate reconstruction from ground surface temperature histories. Clim Past 12(12):2181–2194, 2016. dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2181-2016.
69. Büntgen U, Arseneault D, Boucher É, Churakova OV, Gennaretti F, et al.: Prominent role of volcanism in Common Era climate variability and human history. Dendrochronologia 64(125757):1–11, 2020.
dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.dendro.2020.125757.
70. Lapointe F, Bradley RS, Francus P, Balascio NL, Abbott MB, et al.: Annually resolved Atlantic sea surface temperature variability over the past 2,900 y. P Natl Acad Sci USA 117(44):27171–27178, 2020. dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2014166117.
71. Büntgen U, Allen K, Anchukaitis KJ, Arseneault D, Boucher É, et al.: The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions. Nat Commun 12(3411):1–10, 2021. dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23627-6.
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Holocene
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Last 2000 Years
The list below comes from Jim Java here: https://gist.github.com/priscian/81099e9332c86800d538542fb7027eaf
Global and Hemispheric Hockey Sticks
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5. Briffa KR: Annual climate variability in the Holocene: Interpreting the
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dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(99)00056-6.
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2000. dx.doi.org/10.1038/35001556.
8. Jones PD, Osborn TJ, & Briffa KR: The evolution of climate over the last millennium. Science 292(5517):662–667, 2001. dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1059126.
9. Briffa KR, Osborn TJ, Schweingruber FH, Harris IC, Jones PD, et al.: Low-frequency temperature variations from a northern tree ring density network.
J Geophys Res-Atmos, 106(D3):2929–2941, 2001. dx.doi.org/10.1029/2000JD900617.
10. Esper J, Cook ER, & Schweingruber FH: Low-frequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability. Science 295(5563):2250–2253, 2002. dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1066208.
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dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8181(03)00095-X.
14. Pollack HN & Smerdon JE: Borehole climate reconstructions: Spatial structure and hemispheric averages. J Geophys Res-Atmos 109(D11):D11106, 2004.
dx.doi.org/10.1029/2003JD004163.
15. Huang S: Merging information from different resources for new insight into climate change in the past and future. Geophys Res Lett 31:L13205, 2004.
dx.doi.org/10.1029/2004GL019781.
16. Jones PD & Mann ME: Climate over past millennia. Rev Geophys 42(2):RG2002, 2004. dx.doi.org/10.1029/2003RG000143.
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20. D'Arrigo R, Wilson R, & Jacoby G: On the long-term context for late twentieth century warming. J Geophys Res-Atmos 111(D3):D03103, 2006. dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006352.
21. Osborn TJ & Briffa KR: The spatial extent of 20th-century warmth in the context of the past 1200 years. Science 311(5762):841–844, 2006. dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1120514.
22. Viau AE, Gajewski K, Sawada MC, & Fines P: Millennial-scale temperature variations in North America during the Holocene. J Geophys Res-Atmos 111(D9):D09102, 2006. dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006031.
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33. Goosse H, Crespin E, de Montety A, Mann ME, Renssen H, & Timmermann A: Reconstructing surface temperature changes over the past 600 years using climate model simulations with data assimilation. J Geophys Res-Atmos 115(D9), 2010. dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012737.
34. Christiansen B & Ljungqvist FC: Reconstruction of the extratropical NH mean temperature over the last millennium with a method that preserves low-frequency variability. J Climate 24(23):6013–6034, 2011.
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37. PAGES 2k Consortium: Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia. Nat Geosci 6(5):339–346, 2013. dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1797.
38. Marcott SA, Shakun JD, Clark PU, & Mix AC: A reconstruction of regional and global temperature for the past 11,300 years. Science 339(6124):1198–1201, 2013. dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1228026.
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43. Tingley MP & Huybers P: Heterogeneous warming of Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures over the last 1200 years. J Geophys Res-Atmos 120(9):4040–4056, 2015. dx.doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022506.
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53. Tardif R, Hakim GJ, Perkins WA, Horlick KA, Erb MP, et al.: Last millennium reanalysis with an expanded proxy database and seasonal proxy modeling. Clim Past 15(4):1251–1273, 2019. dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1251-2019.
54. Neukom R, Steiger N, Gómez-Navarro JJ, Wang J, & Werner JP: No evidence for globally coherent warm and cold periods over the preindustrial Common Era. Nature 571(7766):550–554, 2019. dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1401-2.
55. Kaufman D, McKay N, Routson C, Erb M, Davis B, et al.: A global database of Holocene paleotemperature records. Sci Data 7(1):1–34, 2020. dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0445-3.
56. Kaufman D, McKay N, Routson C, Erb M, Dätwyler C, et al.: Holocene global mean surface temperature, a multi-method reconstruction approach. Sci Data 7(201):1–13, 2020. dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0530-7.
57. Westerhold T, Marwan N, Drury AJ, Liebrand D, Agnini C, et al.: An astronomically dated record of Earth's climate and its predictability over the last 66 million years. Science 369(6509):1383–1387, 2020.
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58. Bova S, Rosenthal Y, Liu Z, Godad SP, & Yan M: Seasonal origin of the thermal maxima at the Holocene and the last interglacial. Nature 589:548–553, 2021. dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-03155-x.
59. Osman MB, Tierney JE, Zhu J, Tardif R, Hakim GJ, et al.: Globally resolved surface temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum. Nature 599:239–244, 2021. dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03984-4.
60. Kaufman DS & McKay NP: Past and future warming—direct comparison on multi-century timescales. Clim Past 18(4):911–917, 2022. dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-911-2022.
61. Anchukaitis KJ & Smerdon JE: Progress and uncertainties in global and hemispheric temperature reconstructions of the Common Era. Quaternary Sci Rev 286:107537, 2022. dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107537.
62. Erb MP, McKay NP, Steiger N, Dee S, Hancock C, et al.: Reconstructing Holocene temperatures in time and space using paleoclimate data assimilation. Clim Past 18(12):2599–2629, 2022. dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2599-2022.
63. Esper J, Smerdon JE, Anchukaitis KJ, Allen K, Cook ER, et al.: The IPCC's reductive Common Era temperature history. Commun Earth Environ 5(1):222, 2024. dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01371-1.
2. Jones PD, Briffa KR, Barnett TP, & Tett SFB: High-resolution palaeoclimatic records for the last millennium: Interpretation, integration and comparison with General Circulation Model control-run temperatures. Holocene 8(4):455–471, 1998.
dx.doi.org/10.1191/095968398667194956.
3. Pollack HN, Huang S, & Shen, P-Y: Climate change record in subsurface temperatures: A global perspective. Science 282(5387) 279–281, 1998.
dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.282.5387.279.
4. Mann ME, Bradley RS, & Hughes MK: Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations. Geophys Res Lett 26(6):759–762, 1999. dx.doi.org/10.1029/1999GL900070.
5. Briffa KR: Annual climate variability in the Holocene: Interpreting the
message of ancient trees. Quaternary Sci Rev 19(1):87–105, 2000.
dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(99)00056-6.
6. Crowley TJ & Lowery TS: How warm was the medieval warm period? Ambio 29(1):51–54, 2000. dx.doi.org/10.1579/0044-7447-29.1.51.
7. Huang S, Pollack HN, & Shen P-Y: Temperature trends over the past five centuries reconstructed from borehole temperatures. Nature 403(6771):756–758,
2000. dx.doi.org/10.1038/35001556.
8. Jones PD, Osborn TJ, & Briffa KR: The evolution of climate over the last millennium. Science 292(5517):662–667, 2001. dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1059126.
9. Briffa KR, Osborn TJ, Schweingruber FH, Harris IC, Jones PD, et al.: Low-frequency temperature variations from a northern tree ring density network.
J Geophys Res-Atmos, 106(D3):2929–2941, 2001. dx.doi.org/10.1029/2000JD900617.
10. Esper J, Cook ER, & Schweingruber FH: Low-frequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability. Science 295(5563):2250–2253, 2002. dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1066208.
11. Mann ME, Rutherford S, Bradley RS, Hughes MK, & Keimig FT: Optimal surface temperature reconstructions using terrestrial borehole data. J Geophys Res-Atmos 108(D7), 2003. dx.doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002532.
12. Mann ME & Jones PD: Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia. Geophys Res Lett 30(15), 2003. dx.doi.org/10.1029/2003GL017814.
13. Briffa KR, Osborn TJ, & Schweingruber FH: Large-scale temperature inferences from tree rings: A review. Global Planet Change 40(1):11–26, 2004.
dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8181(03)00095-X.
14. Pollack HN & Smerdon JE: Borehole climate reconstructions: Spatial structure and hemispheric averages. J Geophys Res-Atmos 109(D11):D11106, 2004.
dx.doi.org/10.1029/2003JD004163.
15. Huang S: Merging information from different resources for new insight into climate change in the past and future. Geophys Res Lett 31:L13205, 2004.
dx.doi.org/10.1029/2004GL019781.
16. Jones PD & Mann ME: Climate over past millennia. Rev Geophys 42(2):RG2002, 2004. dx.doi.org/10.1029/2003RG000143.
17. Moberg A, Sonechkin DM, Holmgren K, Datsenko NM, & Karlén W: Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data. Nature 433(7026):613–617, 2005. dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature03265.
18. Oerlemans J: Extracting a climate signal from 169 glacier records. Science 308(5722):675–677, 2005. dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1107046.
19. Rutherford S, Mann ME, Osborn TJ, Briffa KR, Jones PD, et al.: Proxy-based Northern Hemisphere surface temperature reconstructions: Sensitivity to method, predictor network, target season, and target domain. J Climate 18(13):2308–2329, 2005. dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3351.1.
20. D'Arrigo R, Wilson R, & Jacoby G: On the long-term context for late twentieth century warming. J Geophys Res-Atmos 111(D3):D03103, 2006. dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006352.
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