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Has the "Hockey Stick" Been Disproven? Part 1 - Energy & Environment Politics

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After Michael Mann and his colleagues (MBH) published their first "hockey stick" paper in 1998[1] and its follow up in 1999[2], scientists had compelling evidence that recent warming, especially warming following 1950 or so, was unique in recent centuries. Geological evidence revealed that recent increases global and NH temperatures were detectable at rates beyond the natural variability observed over the last several hundred years. The resulting "hockey stick" graph was used in the IPCC's third assessment report, and the contrast between this graph and the previous schematic in the 1990 report was visually evident. The 1990 schematic was not a true reconstruction of global or even hemispheric temperatures; it was indistinguishable from a reconstruction Central England temperatures published in Lamb 1965. The 1990 graph was only a schematic with no temperature scale, and it ended in ~1950. The MBH "hockey stick" reconstruction was the first time the IP...

Unskeptical Challenges to Hockey Stick Temperature Reconstructions

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Comparison of Loehle 2008, Pages 2K and HadCRUT5 In 2007, Loehle published a multiproxy study[1] estimating global temperature over the last 2000 years. It's distinctive feature was that it removed all tree ring proxies, leaving only 18 proxies to estimate global temperatures. According to the abstract the paper shows a warm MWP compared to today. "The mean series shows the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and Little Ice Age (LIA) quite clearly, with the MWP being approximately 0.3°C warmer than 20th century values at these eighteen sites." Loehle 2007 Temperature Reconstruction Admittedly this reconstruction looks very different from the "hockey stick" reconstructions from Mann and other authors. However, Loehle's reconstruction contained several errors in the way the dates were handled, and once discovered, a revised version of this paper was published in 2008.[2] "Several errors in data handling in that report have come to light, leading to the need for th...