Wood Romances

A paper was published in 2013[1] that reconstructed intermediate water temperatures (IWT) for an area of Indonesian waters around the Makassar Straight and the Flores Sea. The study includes two reconstructions, one at 500 m depth and another at 600 m to 900 m depth in an effort to show how Pacific IWT ha sbeen affected by high latitude source waters. The reconstruction somewhat predictably found that during the HTM, average IWT in this area were warmer than in 1970. Given the misuse of this paper by contrarians (see below), I think it best to quote directly from the paper so you can see precisely what this paper is actually about. The early Holocene warmth and subsequent IWT cooling in Indonesia is likely related to temperature variability in the higher-latitude source waters. To assess the mechanisms that caused these hydrographic variations, we estimate down-core salinities and densities for the 500- and 600- to 650-m depths. A temperature-salinity-density plot suggests that althoug...

WA07 Demonstrating Verification Failure of M&M This is part 3 of a 3 part series on M&M's accusations of "tricks" on the part of MBH and the hockey stick. Part 1 is here and Part 2 is here . Stephen McIntyre is reporting another "Nature Trick" on his ClimateAudit blog. The post is from Nov 24, 2023. As I've pointed out before, the MBH98/99 hockey stick have been replicated so many times that it's really old news. In 2007, Wahl and Amman were able to emulate the MBH98/99 hockey stick reconstruction and verify that it was robust to statistical method. But there were some slight differences between the two, and it seems some people won't be happy until they emulate it exactly.  An "Audit" of MBH98/99 In 2021, Hampus Söderqvist apparently succeeded in reproducing MBH98/99 exactly, but in the process of doing so, he discovered some minor errors from the infilling of grid box temperatures in Jones & Briffa 1992 that affected MBH98/99...

Hockey Sticks Featured in the North Report In two previous posts ( here and here ), I described the challenges by McIntyre and McKitrick (M&M) to the initial two hockey stick papers published by Mann, Bradley and Hughes (MBH98 and MBH99). In these posts I summarized M&M's multiple critiques of the MBH hockey stick papers, essentially that the "hockey stick" is an artifact of flaws in the MBH statistical method and an over reliance on one set of North American tree ring proxies. However, multiple peer-reviewed papers following M&M's criticism generally found that M&M's criticisms lacked merit and vindicated the MBH hockey stick reconstruction. To summarize: 1. Biases associated with MBH's statistical method were small and contributed very little to the shape of the MBH hockey stick reconstruction. Biases associated with M&M's statistical method went in the opposite direction, and M&M exaggerated the effect of statistical bias on the...

Just recently I saw a video by John Robson from what he calls a "Climate Discussion Nexus." I've seen several of his videos before, and for the most part they simply put a nice-looking polish on old, debunked contrarian talking points so that you can see them with a higher production value than what you might see in a Tony Heller video. I've largely ignored most of these; John Robson is a historian, and it's pretty clear that he doesn't understand the evidence he's trying to refute. But in this particular video Robson's credentials as a historian could have served him well, if he had chosen to use his expertise to uncover the facts involved. The "Hockey Stick" as it Appeared in IPCC TAR In this video , John Robson attempts to describe the dissention between Michael Mann and his colleagues as they were preparing chapter 2 of the IPCC TAR. This chapter included the "hockey stick" graph with data from MBH99, Briffa 2000, Jones 1998, a...