Wood Romances

I found csv file of the CMIP5 ensemble means for RCP4.5 and 8.5 on the Climate Reanalyzer website, so I downloaded both so I can do my own comparisons. I plotted multiple GMST datasets including 2 reanalyses with both RCP ensemble means from CMIP5. RCP4.5 over the last 15 years has been trending slightly warmer than observations. I don't have the 95% uncertainty envelopes, but observations here are clearly going to be well within the envelope.   But I decided to plot 30-year trends for these datasets with the expected 30 year trends in the two model ensemble means. It shows that while the models have expected a higher trends in warming over the last 15 years or so, RCP4.5 expects a steep drop off in warming rates right about now. This suggests to me that these scenarios are expecting a deceleration of our emissions in pretty substantially in ways that simply isn't happening. If current trends continue, we're likely to surpass RCP4.5 over the next decade or two, while RCP8.5...