Wood Romances

  Now that 2023 is in the books, it's pretty clear that all global temperature datasets will show 2023 to be the warmest year on record by a significant margin. And since 21st century has exceeded the warmest temperatures of the Holocene (the current interglacial), it's also fair to say that 2023 has likely been the warmest year at least since the last interglacial ended 125K years ago. I'm going to wait until all the major datasets are updated to 2023 before saying more about 2023. But already the dishonesty from contrarians is coming out to spin 2023 into something other than what it actually was. Patrick Moore's Dishonesty Patrick Moore posted a tweet with the above graph claiming that what I summarized about 2023 above is an "outright lie." His words: The claim is being made that “2023 was the hottest year in 125,000 years”. This is an outright lie. The Holocene Climatic Optimum from about 10,000-5,000 years ago, when the Sahara was green, was warmer than...

In 2020, Zeke Hausfather (and others) published a study in Geophsysical Research Letters[1] examining the performance of climate models in relation to observational data. Their conclusion was that "We find that climate models published over the past five decades were skillful in predicting subsequent GMST changes, with most models examined showing warming consistent with observations, particularly when mismatches between model-projected and observationally estimated forcings were taken into account." Given the selection criteria for selecting models described in Hausfather's paper, most of the models produced results that were statistically indistinguishable from observations. Reliability of Models in Hausfather et al 2020. However, just last month, Nicola Scafetta examined the performance of the individual CMIP6 models which contributed to projections in the AR6 report.[2] This paper was published in the same journal as Hausfather's paper a couple years ago. The CMIP...