Wood Romances

CO2 Coalition 's " Fact #21 " claims that "IPCC models have overstated warming by up to three time too much." According to this claim to fact, John Christy's testimony on "February 2016 to the U.S. House Committee on Science, Space & Technology included remarkable charts that document just how much the models overestimate temperatures. The red line in the chart shows the average of 102 climate model runs completed by Christy and his team at the University of Alabama at Huntsville using the models on which the IPCC itself relies. Also shown on the chart are the actual, observed temperatures. The models exaggerate warming, on average, two and a half times the actual temperature (or three times over in the climate-crucial tropics). Here's the graph they use to support this claim. The above graph reports to show 32 models and 102 model runs within the CMIP5 model ensemble. They are limited to those runs in the KNMI Climate Explorer. The models are s...

I found csv file of the CMIP5 ensemble means for RCP4.5 and 8.5 on the Climate Reanalyzer website, so I downloaded both so I can do my own comparisons. I plotted multiple GMST datasets including 2 reanalyses with both RCP ensemble means from CMIP5. RCP4.5 over the last 15 years has been trending slightly warmer than observations. I don't have the 95% uncertainty envelopes, but observations here are clearly going to be well within the envelope.   But I decided to plot 30-year trends for these datasets with the expected 30 year trends in the two model ensemble means. It shows that while the models have expected a higher trends in warming over the last 15 years or so, RCP4.5 expects a steep drop off in warming rates right about now. This suggests to me that these scenarios are expecting a deceleration of our emissions in pretty substantially in ways that simply isn't happening. If current trends continue, we're likely to surpass RCP4.5 over the next decade or two, while RCP8.5...