Wood Romances

  A study was published last year that used two independent methods to estimate the rate at which the Earth's Energy Imbalance is increasing between mid-2005 and mid-2019. The first method used in situ measurements to calculate the planetary heat uptake. This method found the trend for 0–2,000 m ocean heat content anomaly to be 0.43 ± 0.40 W/m^2/decade. The second method used satellite measurements to calculate a CERES TOA energy flux of 0.50 ± 0.47 W/m^2/decade. These two trends were statistically identical to each other - the difference between them was 0.068 ± 0.29 W/m^2/decade.  The average value for EEI for the entire study period was 0.77 ± 0.06 W/m^2. In a previous post , I used three different estimates for EEI, this paper, one from Hansen (2005-2010) and one from von Schuckmann (2011-2018). I plotted all three of these values in the center year for the estimate in yellow as "studies."  In the above graph, I plotted the values for CERES and in situ measurements as...

In a previous post , I calculated ECS (accounting for increases in GHGs and aerosols) to be about 3.3 C.  The calculation was based on CO2 causing 2.11 W/m^2 increase in radiative forcing with a total increase, after accounting for GHGs other than CO2 and aerosols, of 2.17 W/m^2 (aerosols cancel out most of the effects of GHGs outside of CO2). One weakness of that approach is that it used a value for EEI that was an average for 2011-2018 with forcings that were current through 2020. I've been thinking about a way to improve this, and here's what I came up with. Transient Climate Response (TCR) Since the relationship between CO2 and temperature is logarithmic, I decided to plot the relationship between temperature and ln(rCO2) to see what that might be able to tell us about sensitivity from empirical data. So in the above graph, on the y-axis I plotted GMST from HadCRUT5 using a 1850-1900 baseline to match the IPCC's approximation of preindustrial levels. On the x-axis, I pl...