Wood Romances

GMST Anomalies (1850-2022) Data for global mean temperatures from 2022 have come in, and depending on the dataset, 2022 was either the 5th or 6th warmest year on record - some say 2015 was cooler, and some warmer. The following graph from Zeke Hausfather shows how GMST stacks up with recent years in the BEST dataset. BEST Anomaly Ranking   2022 was also the warmest La Niña year on record, despite being a stronger La Niña year than 2018 and 2021. The following is the list of anomalies, all set to deviations from the 1951-1980 mean. Where I was able to find them quickly, I included the 95% CIs for each anomaly. Dataset Anomaly ( º C) (1951-1980) HadCRUT5 NASA NOAA BEST JMA NCAR* ERA5* Average 0.878  ± 0.036 0.893   ± 0.05 0.820   ± 0.15 0.929   ± 0.028 0.785 0.865 0.921 0.861 *Reanalysis The average for all of these was 0.86 C warmer than the 1891-1980 mean. Thirty year trends have been accelerating, recently increasing beyond 0.2ºC/decade. With three La Niña even...

In a recent post by Willis Eschenbach[1] at the Watts Up With That blog, we are again being told that there has been a recent decline in global temperatures. The argument was that a breakpoint analysis of multiple datasets reveals a break around 2015, and trends following that breakpoint are either flat or cooling. Yet it's completely unsurprising that such a breakpoint was found in 2015, since that was the beginning of a very large El Nino, and we haven't had a significant El Nino since. Instead, La Nina conditions have prevailed. Yet, the following is indisputable from the GMST data we have: 1. El Nino years are warming at about the same rate as La Nina years (both are warming at 0.2 C/decade since 1980). 2. El Nino years average almost 0.2 C warmer than La Nina years (the difference in the Y direction between the red and blue lines above). 3. The AGW warming signal is about 0.2 C/decade since 1980. 4. ENSO cycles between El Nino and La Nina inside of decadal time scales. Tha...

I keep a spreadsheet of the major Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) datasets. The numbers for December 2021 and the year of 2021. So I plotted the data from NASA, NOAA, JMA, Berkeley Earth (BEST), and HadCRUT5. The year ended up basically in a statistical tie with 2018 as the 6th warmest year on record and both 2018 and 2021 are the warmest La Nina years on record. It's amazing to me how much agreement there is between these datasets. To illustrate, I calculated the average of all of the above and plotted the average with the 95% confidence intervals from the HadCRUT5 dataset. The average seems to consistently fall within the 95% confidence interval for HadCRUT5. I also decided to do a little calculation to update the when we can expect to hit 1.5 C if we continue at the same pace. To estimate this I used basically the same method used in the IPCC 1.5 C report. I took the HadCRUT5 dataset and calculated 30 year trends (centered) through 2005. Then I took the 30 year trend (0.2...