2022 Global Mean Surface Temperatures

GMST Anomalies (1850-2022)

Data for global mean temperatures from 2022 have come in, and depending on the dataset, 2022 was either the 5th or 6th warmest year on record - some say 2015 was cooler, and some warmer. The following graph from Zeke Hausfather shows how GMST stacks up with recent years in the BEST dataset.

BEST Anomaly Ranking 

2022 was also the warmest La Niña year on record, despite being a stronger La Niña year than 2018 and 2021. The following is the list of anomalies, all set to deviations from the 1951-1980 mean. Where I was able to find them quickly, I included the 95% CIs for each anomaly.

Dataset	Anomaly (ºC) (1951-1980)
HadCRUT5 NASA NOAA BEST JMA NCAR* ERA5* Average	0.878 ± 0.036 0.893 ± 0.05 0.820 ± 0.15 0.929 ± 0.028 0.785 0.865 0.921 0.861
*Reanalysis

The average for all of these was 0.86 C warmer than the 1891-1980 mean. Thirty year trends have been accelerating, recently increasing beyond 0.2ºC/decade. With three La Niña events, though, acceleration rates have decreased slightly the last couple years. Reanalyses are showing higher warming trends than thermometers.

30-Year Trends

After the 2016 El Niño, contrarians have been asserting that there has been a "pause" in global warming. This is an exercise in cherry picking. NASA shows a trend of -0.12 ± 0.37ºC/decade since 2016, but that confidence interval is more than 3 times the trend, so warming cannot be ruled out with any confidence. Thirty-year trends are statistically significant, and warming has met or exceeded 0.2ºC/decade for years now. El Niño years average ~0.15ºC warmer than La Niña years, but both have been warming at ~0.2ºC/decade since 1980. So generally speaking, it can take several years following a strong El Niño to have another year that is significantly warmer. 

ENSO Trends

However, this is a small portion of the climate system. About 93% of the excess heat is taken up by the oceans, and Ocean Heat Content was the highest on record. So while the atmosphere in 2022 was the 5th or 6th warmest, the climate as a whole is almost certainly the warmest on record. 

OHC in 2022

We are still in La Niña conditions, and the last neutral year (2020) was statistically tied with 2016 for the warmest year on record. The next neutral or El Niño year is likely to challenge these years as the warmest on record. It's unusual to have three La Niñas in a row, and it's not likely for La Niñas to continue indefinitely.

I graphed HadCRUT5 set to the 1850-1900 mean along with centered 30-year means. I also calculated the most recent 30-year trend (+0.211ºC/decade) and used that trend to project from the last 30 year mean to get what would be the projected 30 year mean for 2022. I came up with a 2022 anomaly of 1.25ºC. Projecting from this point assuming the current trend continues, we would hit +1.5ºC in 2034 and +2.0ºC in 2058. A large El Niño in the next few years would likely push that date up a bit.