The Cryosphere and SLR

Often when I prepare posts on various topics, I collect resources in the peer-reviewed literature and save quotes from these studies that illustrate the main point of the study and/or highlight what is relevant to what I'm interested in studying. It occurred to me that these might be useful for people doing their own study, so I thought I'd publish these on my blog. Periodically, I'll update these as new studies get published. You can jump to areas you're interested in with the outline below.

• Global Ice Mass Balance
• Arctic - Northern Hemisphere
• Greenland (GrIS)
• Arctic Sea Ice
• Antarctic - Southern Hemisphere
• Antarctica (AnIS)
• Antarctic Sea Ice
• Global Sea Level Rise

I. Ice Mass Balance

I respond to one of CO2 Coalition's "facts" about mountain glacier melting here. I respond to one of Tony Heller's baseless claims about Greenland's mass balance here and mountain glaciers here and Arctic sea ice here. I respond to Stossel's sloppy journalism on sea ice here. I discuss reconstructions of Arctic sea ice extent here.

[1] Slater, T., Lawrence, I. R., Otosaka, I. N., Shepherd, A., Gourmelen, N., Jakob, L., Tepes, P., Gilbert, L., and Nienow, P.: Review article: Earth's ice imbalance, The Cryosphere, 15, 233–246, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-233-2021, 2021. https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/233/2021/

“The rate of ice loss has risen by 57 % since the 1990s – from 0.8 to 1.2 trillion tonnes per year – owing to increased losses from mountain glaciers, Antarctica, Greenland and from Antarctic ice shelves. During the same period, the loss of grounded ice from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets and mountain glaciers raised the global sea level by 34.6 ± 3.1 mm. The majority of all ice losses were driven by atmospheric melting (68 % from Arctic sea ice, mountain glaciers ice shelf calving and ice sheet surface mass balance), with the remaining losses (32 % from ice sheet discharge and ice shelf thinning) being driven by oceanic melting. Altogether, these elements of the cryosphere have taken up 3.2 % of the global energy imbalance.”

Otosaka, I. N. et al. Mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets from 1992 to 2020, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1597–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, 2023.

Ice losses from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have accelerated since the 1990s, accounting for a significant increase in the global mean sea level. Here, we present a new 29-year record of ice sheet mass balance from 1992 to 2020 from the Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise (IMBIE). We compare and combine 50 independent estimates of ice sheet mass balance derived from satellite observations of temporal changes in ice sheet flow, in ice sheet volume, and in Earth's gravity field. Between 1992 and 2020, the ice sheets contributed 21.0±1.9 mm to global mean sea level, with the rate of mass loss rising from 105 Gt yr−1 between 1992 and 1996 to 372 Gt yr−1 between 2016 and 2020. In Greenland, the rate of mass loss is 169±9 Gt yr−1 between 1992 and 2020, but there are large inter-annual variations in mass balance, with mass loss ranging from 86 Gt yr−1 in 2017 to 444 Gt yr−1 in 2019 due to large variability in surface mass balance. In Antarctica, ice losses continue to be dominated by mass loss from West Antarctica (82±9 Gt yr−1) and, to a lesser extent, from the Antarctic Peninsula (13±5 Gt yr−1). East Antarctica remains close to a state of balance, with a small gain of 3±15 Gt yr−1, but is the most uncertain component of Antarctica's mass balance.

[3] Pattyn et al, “The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 °C global warming,” Nature Climate Change 8 (2018): 1053–1061.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0305-8

[4] Smith et al. Pervasive ice sheet mass loss reflects competing ocean and atmosphere processes. Science 12 Jun 2020: Vol. 368, Issue 6496, pp. 1239-1242. DOI: 10.1126/science.aaz5845
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6496/1239

“Our mass loss rates of 118 ± 24 Gt year−1 from Antarctica and 200 ± 12 Gt year−1 from Greenland imply a total sea level contribution of 14 ± 1 mm over the 16-year period (Table 1).”

1.1 Arctic

1.1.1. Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS)

Ice Mass Balance

[1] Trusel, Luke D., et al. "Nonlinear rise in Greenland runoff in response to post-industrial Arctic warming." Nature 564.7734 (2018): 104-108.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0752-4

“We find that the initiation of increases in GrIS melting closely follow the onset of industrial-era Arctic warming in the mid-1800s, but that the magnitude of GrIS melting has only recently emerged beyond the range of natural variability. Owing to a nonlinear response of surface melting to increasing summer air temperatures, continued atmospheric warming will lead to rapid increases in GrIS runoff and sea-level contributions.”

[2] Norris, J., Allen, R., Evan, A. et al. Evidence for climate change in the satellite cloud record. Nature 536, 72–75 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18273
https://www.nature.com/articles/nature18273?foxtrotcallback=true

[2] Hofer 2017, "Decreasing cloud cover drives the recent mass loss on the Greenland Ice Sheet." Science Advances 28 Jun 2017: Vol. 3, no. 6, e1700584 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1700584
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/advances/3/6/e1700584.full.pdf

[3] Box et al, “Global sea-level contribution from Arctic land ice: 1971–2017” Environmental Research Letters 13.12 (2018)
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf2ed

[4] Michael Bevis, Christopher Harig, Shfaqat A. Khan, Abel Brown, Frederik J. Simons, Michael Willis, Xavier Fettweis, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Finn Bo Madsen, Eric Kendrick, Dana J. Caccamise, Tonie van Dam, Per Knudsen, Thomas Nylen. Accelerating changes in ice mass within Greenland, and the ice sheet’s sensitivity to atmospheric forcing. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Feb 2019, 116 (6) 1934-1939; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1806562116
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330549231_Accelerating_changes_in_ice_mass_within_Greenland_and_the_ice_sheet's_sensitivity_to_atmospheric_forcing

[5] Jérémie Mouginot, Eric Rignot, Anders A. Bjørk, Michiel van den Broeke, Romain Millan, Mathieu Morlighem, Brice Noël, Bernd Scheuchl, Michael Wood, “Forty-six years of Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance from 1972 to 2018” PNAS May 7, 2019 116 (19) 9239-9244; first published April 22, 2019 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1904242116
https://www.pnas.org/content/116/19/9239

[6] Mouginot et al, “Supplementary Information for Forty-six years of Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance from 1972 to 2018” https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/suppl/2019/04/17/1904242116.DCSupplemental/pnas.1904242116.sapp.pdf

[7] “Dataset_S02 (XLSX).” Supporting Information for Mouginot et al 2019 with D, SMB and TMB data for 1972-2018. Clicking the link should download an Excel file. https://www.pnas.org/highwire/filestream/860129/field_highwire_adjunct_files/2/pnas.1904242116.sd02.xlsx

[8] The IMBIE Team., Shepherd, A., Ivins, E. et al. Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018. Nature 579, 233–239 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1855-2
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1855-2

[9] Simonsen, S. B., Barletta, V. R., Colgan, W. T., & Sørensen, L. S. (2021). Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance (1992–2020) from calibrated radar altimetry. Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2020GL091216. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091216

[10] ‘Greenland ice loss is at ‘worse-case scenario’ levels, study finds”’ https://news.uci.edu/2019/12/19/greenland-ice-loss-is-at-worse-case-scenario-levels-study-finds/?fbclid=IwAR2Kj6-ArxsLmlnlgwo9GFvWt_XKTMOOLkQwp_ey_z1O8Xd4_R7LqxdqaPs

[11] University of Leeds, “Greenland ice losses rising faster than expected” https://phys.org/news/2019-12-greenland-ice-losses-faster.html

[12] “Greenland has lost 3.8 trillion tonnes of ice since 1992”
https://theconversation.com/greenland-has-lost-3-8-trillion-tonnes-of-ice-since-1992-127752

Paleoclimate Studies

[1] Julie Brigham-Grette, “Pliocene Warmth, Polar Amplification, and Stepped Pleistocene Cooling Recorded in NE Arctic Russia” Science 340 (June 21, 2013).
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/340/6139/1421

[2] Stephanie Paige Ogburn etal. “Ice-Free Arctic in Pliocene, Last Time CO2 Levels above 400 PPM: Sediment cores from an undisturbed Siberian lake reveal a warmer, wetter Arctic.” SA
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ice-free-arctic-in-pliocene-last-time-co2-levels-above-400ppm/

1.1.2.  Arctic Sea ice

[1] Liu, Y., Key, J. R., Wang, X., and Tschudi, M.: Multidecadal Arctic sea ice thickness and volume derived from ice age, The Cryosphere, 14, 1325–1345, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1325-2020, 2020. https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/1325/2020/

“Sea ice is a key component of the Arctic climate system, and has impacts on global climate. Ice concentration, thickness, and volume are among the most important Arctic sea ice parameters. This study presents a new record of Arctic sea ice thickness and volume from 1984 to 2018 based on an existing satellite-derived ice age product. The relationship between ice age and ice thickness is first established for every month based on collocated ice age and ice thickness from submarine sonar data (1984–2000) and ICESat (2003–2008) and an empirical ice growth model. Based on this relationship, ice thickness is derived for the entire time period from the weekly ice age product, and the Arctic monthly sea ice volume is then calculated. The ice-age-based thickness and volume show good agreement in terms of bias and root-mean-square error with submarine, ICESat, and CryoSat-2 ice thickness, as well as ICESat and CryoSat-2 ice volume, in February–March and October–November. More detailed comparisons with independent data from Envisat for 2003 to 2010 and CryoSat-2 from CPOM, AWI, and NASA GSFC (Goddard Space Flight Center) for 2011 to 2018 show low bias in ice-age-based thickness. The ratios of the ice volume uncertainties to the mean range from 21 % to 29 %. Analysis of the derived data shows that the ice-age-based sea ice volume exhibits a decreasing trend of −411 km3 yr−1 from 1984 to 2018, stronger than the trends from other datasets. Of the factors affecting the sea ice volume trends, changes in sea ice thickness contribute more than changes in sea ice area, with a contribution of at least 80 % from changes in sea ice thickness from November to May and nearly 50 % in August and September, while less than 30 % is from changes in sea ice area in all months.”

[2] Kinnard, C., Zdanowicz, C., Fisher, D. et al. Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea ice over the past 1,450 years. Nature 479, 509–512 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10581

[3] Dauner, A. L. L., Schenk, F., Power, K. E., and Heikkilä, M.: Sea-ice variations and trends during the Common Era in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean, The Cryosphere, 18, 1399–1418, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1399-2024, 2024.

[4] Cvijanovic, I., Simon, A., Levine, X. et al. Arctic sea-ice loss drives a strong regional atmospheric response over the North Pacific and North Atlantic on decadal scales. Commun Earth Environ 6, 154 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02059-w

[5] Walsh, J.E., Fetterer, F., Scott Stewart, J. and Chapman, W.L. (2017), A database for depicting Arctic sea ice variations back to 1850. Geogr Rev, 107: 89-107. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1931-0846.2016.12195.x

[6] Brennan, M. K., Hakim, G. J., & Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth, E. (2020). Arctic sea‐ice variability during the instrumental era. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2019GL086843. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086843
https://atmos.uw.edu/~mkb22/files/Brennan_etal_2020.pdf

1.2. Antarctic - SH

1.2.1.  Antarctic Ice Sheet (AnIS)

Ice Mass Balance 

[1] Holland, P.R., Bracegirdle, T.J., Dutrieux, P. et al. West Antarctic ice loss influenced by internal climate variability and anthropogenic forcing. Nat. Geosci. 12, 718–724 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0420-9

“Recent ice loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has been caused by ocean melting of ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea. Eastward wind anomalies at the shelf break enhance the import of warm Circumpolar Deep Water onto the Amundsen Sea continental shelf, which creates transient melting anomalies with an approximately decadal period. No anthropogenic influence on this process has been established. Here, we combine observations and climate model simulations to suggest that increased greenhouse gas forcing caused shelf-break winds to transition from mean easterlies in the 1920s to the near-zero mean zonal winds of the present day. Strong internal climate variability, primarily linked to the tropical Pacific, is superimposed on this forced trend. We infer that the Amundsen Sea experienced decadal ocean variability throughout the twentieth century, with warm anomalies gradually becoming more prevalent, offering a credible explanation for the ongoing ice loss. Existing climate model projections show that strong future greenhouse gas forcing creates persistent mean westerly shelf-break winds by 2100, suggesting a further enhancement of warm ocean anomalies. These wind changes are weaker under a scenario in which greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized.”

[2] DeConto, R., Pollard, D. Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise. Nature 531, 591–597 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature17145

“Here we use a model coupling ice sheet and climate dynamics—including previously underappreciated processes linking atmospheric warming with hydrofracturing of buttressing ice shelves and structural collapse of marine-terminating ice cliffs—that is calibrated against Pliocene and Last Interglacial sea-level estimates and applied to future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Antarctica has the potential to contribute more than a metre of sea-level rise by 2100 and more than 15 metres by 2500, if emissions continue unabated. In this case atmospheric warming will soon become the dominant driver of ice loss, but prolonged ocean warming will delay its recovery for thousands of years.”

[3] Dustin M. Schroeder, Donald D. Blankenship, Duncan A. Young, Enrica Quartini. Thwaites Glacier geothermal flux. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Jun 2014, 111 (25) 9070-9072; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1405184111. https://www.pnas.org/content/111/25/9070

“Presently, the greatest contributor to ice shelf instability around Antarctica appears to be an increase in ocean heat supply to the cavities of Antarctic ice shelves. Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) is the primary heat source for melting glacial ice and its increased presence on the Amundsen Sea continental shelf has been implicated in the rapid melting and grounding line retreat observed beneath the Pine Island Glacier and in the atmospheric warming along the western Antarctic Peninsula.”

[4] Selley, H.L., Hogg, A.E., Cornford, S. et al. Widespread increase in dynamic imbalance in the Getz region of Antarctica from 1994 to 2018. Nat Commun 12, 1133 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21321-1

“Dynamic imbalance in West Antarctica is driven by incursions of warm modified Circum-polar Deep Water (mCDW) melting the floating ice, with the interannual and long-term variability of ocean temperatures linked to atmospheric forcing associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and anthropogenic forcing, respectively.”

[5] DeConto, R.M., Pollard, D., Alley, R.B. et al. The Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise from Antarctica. Nature 593, 83–89 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03427-0

“Here we use an observationally calibrated ice sheet–shelf model to show that with global warming limited to 2 degrees Celsius or less, Antarctic ice loss will continue at a pace similar to today’s throughout the twenty-first century. However, scenarios more consistent with current policies (allowing 3 degrees Celsius of warming) give an abrupt jump in the pace of Antarctic ice loss after around 2060, contributing about 0.5 centimetres GMSL rise per year by 2100—an order of magnitude faster than today. More fossil-fuel intensive scenarios result in even greater acceleration. Ice-sheet retreat initiated by the thinning and loss of buttressing ice shelves continues for centuries, regardless of bedrock and sea-level feedback mechanisms or geoengineered carbon dioxide reduction.”

[6] Ian Joughin et al. Ice-shelf retreat drives recent Pine Island Glacier speedup.Science Advances 11 Jun 2021: Vol. 7, no. 24, eabg3080. DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abg3080
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/7/24/eabg3080

“Speedup of Pine Island Glacier over the past several decades has made it Antarctica’s largest contributor to sea-level rise. The past speedup is largely due to grounding-line retreat in response to ocean-induced thinning that reduced ice-shelf buttressing. While speeds remained fairly steady from 2009 to late 2017, our Copernicus Sentinel 1A/B–derived velocity data show a >12% speedup over the past 3 years, coincident with a 19-km retreat of the ice shelf. We use an ice-flow model to simulate this loss, finding that accelerated calving can explain the recent speedup, independent of the grounding-line, melt-driven processes responsible for past speedups. If the ice shelf’s rapid retreat continues, it could further destabilize the glacier far sooner than would be expected due to surface- or ocean-melting processes.”

[7] Linda Pan et al. Rapid postglacial rebound amplifies global sea level rise following West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse. Science Advances 30 Apr 2021: Vol. 7, no. 18, eabf7787 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abf7787. https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/7/18/eabf7787

“We have shown that GMSL rise following any period of collapse of marine-based sectors of AIS would be rapidly amplified by water outflux driven by postglacial rebound. This mechanism is especially important in West Antarctica, where a full collapse of marine-based sectors during the LIG would lead to an additional ~1 m of GMSL rise or approximately 30% higher than values commonly cited in the literature. In our simulations, this contribution is largely established within ~1 ka or less (dashed-dotted line, Fig. 1B) of the end of the melt event…. Whether on century or millennial time scales, this additional contribution to GMSL, as well as the rapid time scale in which it is reached, is a consequence of the unique setting of WAIS: The ice sheet is grounded on bedrock that is largely below local sea level, and it is underlain by an anomalously hot, low-viscosity mantle and thin lithosphere.”

[8] De Rydt, J., Reese, R., Paolo, F. S., and Gudmundsson, G. H.: Drivers of Pine Island Glacier speed-up between 1996 and 2016, The Cryosphere, 15, 113–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-113-2021, 2021. https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/113/2021/

“Here we used a combination of the latest remote sensing datasets between 1996 and 2016, data assimilation tools, and numerical perturbation experiments to quantify the relative importance of all processes in driving the recent changes in Pine Island Glacier dynamics. We show that (1) calving and ice shelf thinning have caused a comparable reduction in ice shelf buttressing over the past 2 decades; that (2) simulated changes in ice flow over a viscously deforming bed are only compatible with observations if large and widespread changes in ice viscosity and/or basal slipperiness are taken into account; and that (3) a spatially varying, predominantly plastic bed rheology can closely reproduce observed changes in flow without marked variations in ice-internal and basal properties. Our results demonstrate that, in addition to its evolving ice thickness, calving processes and a heterogeneous bed rheology play a key role in the contemporary evolution of Pine Island Glacier.”

Geothermal Heat Flux in Antarctica

[9] Dziadek, R., Ferraccioli, F. & Gohl, K. High geothermal heat flow beneath Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica inferred from aeromagnetic data. Commun Earth Environ 2, 162 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00242-3

[10] Seroussi, H., Ivins, E. R., Wiens, D. A., and Bondzio, J. (2017), Influence of a West Antarctic mantle plume on ice sheet basal conditions, J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, 122, 7127– 7155, doi:10.1002/2017JB014423.

[11] van Wyk de Vries,Maximillian et al. A new volcanic province: an inventory of subglacial volcanoes in West Antarctica. Geological Society, London, Special Publications (2018),461(1):231. http://dx.doi.org/10.1144/SP461.7

[12] Loose, B., Naveira Garabato, A.C., Schlosser, P. et al. Evidence of an active volcanic heat source beneath the Pine Island Glacier. Nat Commun 9, 2431 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04421-3

[13] Kingslake, J., Scherer, R.P., Albrecht, T. et al. Extensive retreat and re-advance of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Holocene. Nature 558, 430–434 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0208-x

[14] Barletta et al (2018) Observed rapid bedrock uplift in Amundsen Sea Embayment promotes ice-sheet stability, Science 22 Jun 2018: Vol. 360, Issue 6395, pp. 1335-1339. DOI: 10.1126/science.aao1447. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/360/6395/1335

[15] Lough, A. et al. Seismic detection of an active subglacial magmatic complex in Marie Byrd Land, Antarctica. Nat. Geosci. 6, 1031–1035 (2013).
https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo1992

[16] Winberry, J. P. & Anandakrishnan, S. Seismicity and neotectonics of West Antarctica. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, 1931 (2003).
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2003GL018001

Paleoclimate Studies

[17] Rhian L.Rees-Owen. “The last forests on Antarctica: Reconstructing flora and temperature from the Neogene Sirius Group, Transantarctic Mountains” Organic Geochemistry Volume 118, April 2018, Pages 4-14
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014663801730219X

[18] Damian Carrington, “Last time CO2 levels were this high, there were trees at the South Pole.” The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/apr/03/south-pole-tree-fossils-indicate-impact-of-climate-change

1.2.2. Antarctic Sea Ice

[1] Eayrs, C., Li, X., Raphael, M.N. et al. Rapid decline in Antarctic sea ice in recent years hints at future change. Nat. Geosci. 14, 460–464 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00768-3
https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-deciphering-the-rise-and-fall-of-antarctic-sea-ice-extent

[2] Raphael, M.N., Maierhofer, T.J., Fogt, R.L. et al. A twenty-first century structural change in Antarctica’s sea ice system. Commun Earth Environ 6, 131 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02107-5

[3] Jinhai Yu, Hongxi Pang, Guitao Shi, Wangbin Zhang, Shuangye Wu, Chunlei An, Yuansheng Li, Shugui Hou, A reconstruction of Antarctic Sea ice extent since the 1950s from a snowpit methanesulfonate (MSA) record in East Antarctic inland, Journal of Marine Systems, Volume 250, 2025,104081, ISSN 0924-7963. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2025.104081.

[4] Jiao Yang, Cunde Xiao, Jiping Liu, Shutong Li, Dahe Qin, Variability of Antarctic sea ice extent over the past 200 years, Science Bulletin, Volume 66, Issue 23, 2021, Pages 2394-2404, ISSN 2095-9273. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2021.07.028.

II.  Sea Level Rise

I have a post summarizing the evidence that sea level rise is accelerating here. I respond to one of CO2 Coalition's "facts" about sea level rise here. I respond to Stossel's  sloppy journalism on SLR here.

[1] Kopp, Robert E., et al. "Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113.11 (2016): E1434-E1441.

https://www.pnas.org/content/113/11/E1434

 “The 20th century rise was extremely likely faster than during any of the 27 previous centuries. Semiempirical modeling indicates that, without global warming, GSL in the 20th century very likely would have risen by between −3 cm and +7 cm, rather than the ∼14 cm observed.”

[2] Merrifield, M. A., S. T. Merrifield, and G. T. Mitchum. "An anomalous recent acceleration of global sea level rise." Journal of Climate 22.21 (2009): 5772-5781.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/22/21/2009jcli2985.1.xml

"The average global sea level trend for the time segments centered on 1962–90 is 1.5 ± 0.5 mm yr−1 (standard error), in agreement with previous estimates of late twentieth-century sea level rise. After 1990, the global trend increases to the most recent rate of 3.2 ± 0.4 mm yr−1, matching estimates obtained from satellite altimetry."

[5] Dangendorf, S., Marcos, M., Wöppelmann, G., Conrad, C. P., Frederikse, T. and Riva, R., 2017, 'Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise', Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114(23), 5946–5951 (DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1616007114).

https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/early/2017/05/16/1616007114.full.pdf

 "Our reconstructed GMSL trend of 1.1 ± 0.3 mm⋅y−1 (1σ) before 1990 falls below previous estimates, whereas our estimate of 3.1 ± 1.4 mm⋅y−1 from 1993 to 2012 is consistent with independent 3stimates from satellite altimetry, leading to overall acceleration larger than previously suggested."

[4] Frederikse, T., Jevrejeva, S., Riva, R. E. M., & Dangendorf, S. (2018). A Consistent Sea-Level Reconstruction and Its Budget on Basin and Global Scales over 1958–2014, Journal of Climate, 31(3), 1267-1280. Retrieved Jan 14, 2021.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/31/3/jcli-d-17-0502.1.xml

"The global-mean sea level reconstruction shows a trend of 1.5 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 over 1958–2014 (1σ), compared to 1.3 ± 0.1 mm yr−1 for the sum of contributors. Over the same period, the reconstruction shows a positive acceleration of 0.07 ± 0.02 mm yr−2, which is also in agreement with the sum of contributors, which shows an acceleration of 0.07 ± 0.01 mm yr−2. Since 1993, both reconstructed sea level and the sum of contributors show good agreement with altimetry estimates."

[5] Dangendorf, S., Hay, C., Calafat, F.M. et al. Persistent acceleration in global sea-level rise since the 1960s. Nat. Clim. Chang. 9, 705–710 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0531-8

 "Here we present an improved hybrid sea-level reconstruction during 1900–2015 that combines previous techniques at time scales where they perform best. We find a persistent acceleration in GMSL since the 1960s and demonstrate that this is largely (~76%) associated with sea-level changes in the Indo-Pacific and South Atlantic. We show that the initiation of the acceleration in the 1960s is tightly linked to an intensification and a basin-scale equatorward shift of Southern Hemispheric westerlies, leading to increased ocean heat uptake, and hence greater rates of GMSL rise, through changes in the circulation of the Southern Ocean."

[6] Yi, S., Heki, K., & Qian, A. (2017). Acceleration in the global mean sea level rise: 2005–2015. Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 11,905– 11,913.

https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076129

"Our results show that the acceleration during the last decade (0.27 ± 0.17 mm/yr2) is about 3 times faster than its value during 1993–2014. The acceleration comes from three factors, that is, 0.04 ± 0.01 mm/yr2 (~15%) by land ice melting, 0.12 ± 0.06 mm/yr2 (~44%) by thermal expansion of the seawater, and 0.11 ± 0.02 mm/yr2 (~41%) by declining land water storage. Although these values in 11 years may suffer from natural variabilities, they shed light on the underlying mechanisms of sea level acceleration and reflect its susceptibility to the global warming."

[7] Dieng, H. B., Cazenave, A., Meyssignac, B., and Ablain, M. (2017), New estimate of the current rate of sea level rise from a sea level budget approach, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 3744– 3751,

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017GL073308

"An important increase of the GMSL rate, of 0.8 mm/yr, is found during the second half of the altimetry era (2004–2015) compared to the 1993–2004 time span, mostly due to Greenland mass loss increase and also to slight increase of all other components of the budget."

[8] Chen, X., Zhang, X., Church, J. et al. The increasing rate of global mean sea-level rise during 1993–2014. Nature Clim Change 7, 492–495 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3325

https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3325

"Here we show that the rise, from the sum of all observed contributions to GMSL, increases from 2.2 ± 0.3 mm yr−1 in 1993 to 3.3 ± 0.3 mm yr−1 in 2014. This is in approximate agreement with observed increase in GMSL rise, 2.4 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 (1993) to 2.9 ± 0.3 mm yr−1 (2014), from satellite observations that have been adjusted for small systematic drift, particularly affecting the first decade of satellite observations."

[9] Nerem, Robert S., et al. "Climate-change–driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era." Proceedings of the national academy of sciences 115.9 (2018): 2022-2025.

https://www.pnas.org/content/115/9/2022

"Using a 25-y time series of precision satellite altimeter data from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2, and Jason-3, we estimate the climate-change–driven acceleration of global mean sea level over the last 25 y to be 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y^2. Coupled with the average climate-change–driven rate of sea level rise over these same 25 y of 2.9 mm/y, simple extrapolation of the quadratic implies global mean sea level could rise 65 ± 12 cm by 2100 compared with 2005, roughly in agreement with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) model projections."

[10] Kleinherenbrink, M., Riva, R. & Scharroo, R. A revised acceleration rate from the altimetry-derived global mean sea level record. Sci Rep 9, 10908 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-47340-z

[11] The Climate Change Initiative Coastal Sea Level Team., Benveniste, J., Birol, F. et al. Coastal sea level anomalies and associated trends from Jason satellite altimetry over 2002–2018. Sci Data 7, 357 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-00694-w

"When combined, the current satellite altimetry record, 28-year long at the time of writing, shows that the global mean sea level is rising and even accelerating. Over the 1993–2019 time span, the mean rate and the acceleration amount to 3.3 +/− 0.3 mm/yr and ~0.1 mm/yr2 respectively."

[12] Wang, J., Church, J.A., Zhang, X. et al. Reconciling global mean and regional sea level change in projections and observations. Nat Commun 12, 990 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21265-6

 "After minimising the natural variability related to ENSO and PDO... from altimetry observations, the GMSL trend over 2007–2018 is 3.8 ± 0.3 mm yr−1 for GSFC, or 4.0 ± 0.4 mm yr−1 for CSIRO GIA-adjusted and GPS-adjusted data (90% CL), consistent with trends estimated from longer tide-gauge reconstructions." And, "Correcting for the recovery from the Mt Pinatubo eruption would increase our GSFC estimate to 0.094 ± 0.036 mm yr−2 (90% CL), consistent with the previous estimate of 0.084 ± 0.025 mm yr−2 (one standard deviation) over 1993–2017."

[13] Tadea Veng, Ole B. Andersen. Consolidating sea level acceleration estimates from satellite altimetry. Advances in Space Research 68.2 (2021): 496-503. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2020.01.016.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S027311772030034X

 "We find an acceleration term in the ERS-1 and ERS-2 timeseries (includes the Pinatubo effect). Monthly crossover analysis, as performed by Kleinherenbrink et al (2019), likely removes the GMSL acceleration in this part of the time-series. We suspect that this result in a significantly lower GMSL acceleration estimate but this need further investigation." [and]

"GMSL based on ESA data on the 1991–2019 period within ± 82° latitude exhibit an acceleration of 0.095 ± 0.009 mm/yr2. The corresponding value for the TPJ data is 0.080 ± 0.008 mm/yr2 for the 1993–2019 period and within ± 66° latitude. The ERS-1 satellite was launched shortly after the large Pinatubo eruption in 1991. The satellite observes a decrease of 6 mm in GMSL during the first 1.7 years until the launch of TOPEX/Poseidon. The distribution of sea level acceleration across the global ocean is highly similar between the ESA and TPJ dataset."

[14] Marcos, M., and Amores, A. (2014), Quantifying anthropogenic and natural contributions to thermosteric sea level rise, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 2502– 2507, doi:10.1002/2014GL059766.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014GL059766

"We then compute the fraction of the observed thermosteric sea level rise of anthropogenic origin and conclude that 87% of the observed trend in the upper 700 m since 1970 is induced by human activity."

[15] Slangen, A. B. A., Church, J. A., Zhang, X., and Monselesan, D. (2014), Detection and attribution of global mean thermosteric sea level change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5951– 5959, doi:10.1002/2014GL061356.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014GL061356

"Our analysis shows that anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing are required to explain the magnitude of the observed changes, while natural forcing drives most of the externally forced variability. The experiments that include anthropogenic and natural forcings capture the observed increased trend toward the end of the twentieth century best. The observed changes can be explained by scaling the natural‐only experiment by 0.70 ± 0.30 and the anthropogenic‐only experiment (including opposing forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols) by 1.08 ± 0.13(±2σ)."

[16] İz, H. Bâki and Shum, C.K.. "Recent and future manifestations of a contingent global mean sea level acceleration" Journal of Geodetic Science, vol. 10, no. 1, 2020, pp. 153-162. https://doi.org/10.1515/jogs-2020-0115

"A critical issue for the SA data sets, as mentioned before, was raised by Kleinherenbrink et al. (2019). Their assessment of the globally averaged SA data uncertainties rendered the GMSL acceleration claimed by Nerem at al.,2018, and Ablain et al., 2019) statistically not significant at a 95% confidence level. Nonetheless, our inquiries to obtain the revised data used in their study to replicate their result were unanswered. Hence, we will assume that the above data set is still viable for this investigation because this series was also nearly replicated by the other data centers "

[17] Ablain, M., Meyssignac, B., Zawadzki, L., Jugier, R., Ribes, A., Spada, G., Benveniste, J., Cazenave, A., and Picot, N.: Uncertainty in satellite estimates of global mean sea-level changes, trend and acceleration, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1189–1202, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1189-2019, 2019.

"Over 1993–2017, we have found a GMSL trend of 3.35±0.4 mm yr−1 within a 90 % confidence level (CL) and a GMSL acceleration of 0.12±0.07 mm yr−2 (90 % CL). This is in agreement (within error bars) with previous studies."

[18] Houston, J.R., 2021. Sea-level acceleration: Analysis of the world's high-quality tide gauges. Journal of Coastal Research, 37(2), 272–279. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.

"Mean and median sea-level accelerations based on these gauges were 0.0128 ± 0.0064 mm/y^2 and 0.0126 ± 0.0080 mm/y^2 , respectively, both at the statistically significant 95% confidence level."

[19] Alley RB, Clark PU, Huybrechts P, Joughin I. Ice-sheet and sea-level changes. Science. 2005 Oct 21;310(5747):456-60. doi: 10.1126/science.1114613. PMID: 16239468.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16239468/

[20] Stephanie Paige Ogburn etal. “Ice-Free Arctic in Pliocene, Last Time CO2 Levels above 400 PPM: Sediment cores from an undisturbed Siberian lake reveal a warmer, wetter Arctic.” SA
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ice-free-arctic-in-pliocene-last-time-co2-levels-above-400ppm/

[21] Clark, P. U., Shakun, J. D., Marcott, S. A., Mix, A. C., Eby, M., Kulp, S., … Plattner, G.-K. (2016). Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change. Nature Climate Change, 6(4), 360–369. doi:10.1038/nclimate2923