Calculating ECS from The Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025
A prepublication version of the Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025 (IGCC25) has recently been released. This report provides an annual update to IPCC's AR6 WG1 report concerning human emissions and global warming. The data provided as excel spreadsheets related to this report was extensive, and this allows me to produce some graphs I haven't been able to do before. These data do a really good job of showing the relative impact of human and anthropogenic forcings since 1750. I decided to show these forcings with GMST anomalies to see how well the quantifications of forcings agree with observations for warming. This means for this post I'm limiting myself to values from 1850 to present. The graph below shows an update to Gillett's analysis used in AR6 that made it possible to conclude that human activity is responsible for virtually all the warming above the 1850-1900 mean. For this graph, I set HadCRUT5 to the 1850-1900 mean, and Gillett's analysis tracks with ...