Did Dr. Viner Predict Snow Would be a "Thing of the Past?"

In March 2000, the Independent ran a story by Charles Onians with the title, "Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past." The article begins by noting trends over the last 30 years for UK winters. "The first two months of 2000 were virtually free of significant snowfall in much of lowland  Britain, and December brought only moderate snowfall in the South-east. It is the continuation of a trend that has been increasingly visible in the past 15 years: in the south of England, for instance, from 1970 to 1995 snow and sleet fell for an average of 3.7 days, while from 1988 to 1995 the average was 0.7 days. London's last substantial snowfall was in February 1991." The overall point of the story is that snow frequency has been decreasing in the UK.

However, Onians reported some content from Dr. David Viner, a scientist with CRU at the University of East Anglia. It reads like it was taken from an interview, with some statements coming from Onians summarizing the interview and occasional quotes from Dr. Viner. I think it's fair to isolate the actual quotes from Viner (as opposed to the commentary and reporting by Onians). Dr. Viner is quoted as saying that at some point, snowfall will become "a rare and exciting event... Children just aren't going to know what snow is." Later in the story, he says that when there is heavy snow, "We're really going to get caught out. Snow will probably cause chaos in 20 years time." Everything else in the story comes from Onians or the other people he referenced. We have no idea what qualifications and nuance Dr. Viner gave to Onians that was not included in this article; we only know what Onians preserved from their conversation. This being Onians' first (and only?) climate-related story, I do not give Onians the benefit of the doubt that he reported all the nuance he was given by Dr. Viner.

It turns out that snowfall frequency has continued to decline in the UK. One recent story reports, "Met Office data shows that, since 1979, the number of snow-lying days has generally decreased by up to five days per decade, and up to ten days per decade in the North Pennines, near Penrith. Around a fifth of the total area of the UK has experienced a significant drop in the prevalence of days with snow lying on the ground."

But "20 years time" was in 2020, and is it fair to say that snowfall "probably causes chaos" when it snows in Great Britain? I don't live in Great Britain, and I've heard reports that this can be the case in some areas, but I suspect not everywhere. It would seem that while the general trend that Viner observed is accurate - snowfall is decreasing in UK winters - the specific outcome Viner speculates would be the case in 2020 has not yet fully materialized. Not knowing what else Dr. Viner said that Onians didn't include in this story, it's hard to say more than that.

This news story is often claimed to be proof of a "failed prediction" in climate science. But what this actually records is a climate scientist speculating qualitatively about what snow might be like in 20 years. This is not a scientific prediction like you might see in a scientific paper. It's just Dr. Viner speaking informally, and while his speculation is inaccurate, there's nothing in Viner's words that shows that climate scientists don't have a handle on now climate in the UK is changing in response to AGW.

The statements that are most objectionable come from Onians and the Independent. It's the editors at the Independent that came up with the headline, "Snowfalls are just a thing of the past." That's a dumb headline that should never have been written. But that's the feature of the story that contrarians quote more than anything else, so much so that Steve Connor at the Independent wrote an article defending the original story though admitting the headline wasn't the best. "A more accurate headline would be something like: 'Snowfalls are becoming less frequent in our little corner of the world but that doesn't necessarily mean that snow will disappear from our lives completely and forever.' Unfortunately, any sub-editor who would suggest such a tediously long headline is unlikely to last very long." The need for snappy headlines may be real, but the Independent could have done better - "Snowfall is becoming less frequent in the UK" might be just fine, if less catchy.

We can admit that Dr. Viner speculated, that Onians didn't preserve any nuance he may have been given, and that the Independent's headline was sensationalistic, but there's nothing about this that is actually a failed prediction of climate science. At best, it's a failure of accurate reporting and headline writing. The article never claimed that snow would be a thing of the past at any time; it said heavy snow would become less frequent, and people will be unprepared for it when it happens. But contrarians frequently put the words of the headline onto the lips of Dr. Viner, as if he were the one who said snow would be a thing of the past. This one is my favorite:

Whoever made this meme didn't even know Dr. Viner's name and probably didn't read the Independent article. He took the headline and a quote from Viner and mashed them together, misspelled Dr. Viner's name, and threw it up on the internet. It's now been over 23 years since this story was written, and if people used this story as an example of sloppy, sensationalistic reporting, I'd have no real objection.  But as an example of a failed prediction in climate science? Not so much. Dr. Viner never predicted that snowfall would be a thing of the past. Now nearly a quarter century later, to drone on about a sloppy headline is just childish, and misattributing the headline to a climate scientist is dishonest.

References:

[1] See https://wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-the-independent.pdf