Wood Romances

Most of the annual GMST temperature data is in for 2025, and as expected, it was essentially a statistical tie with 2023 for the 2nd and 3rd the warmest year on record. La Niña conditions developed in 2025 which prevented it from competing with 2024.  Above, here's how 2025 looks in several major datasets, and I added the recently published DCENT-I surface temperature dataset. I put the 2-sigma uncertainties for HadCRUT5 in dotted lines. This graph is set to the 1951-1980 mean (left scale), and this allows you to see that most of the variability between the datasets occurs in the late 19th century. The right scale is offset to show the warming above the 1850-1900 baseline for HadCRUT5 with the 1.5°C target as a dotted horizontal line. Below I set the same data to the 1850-1900 baseline and plotted centered 30-year means from HadCRUT5; this has the effect of better showing warming for each dataset above this baseline (though variability between the datasets artificially shows u...

Did you know that there have been 50 failed doomsday predictions since the 1960s? Yea, neither did I, but that's what an opinion piece at AEI from 2019 claims. The article compiles its list from several sources, including 27 from Tony Heller. A Breitbart article upped that to 41. Then Perry added 9 more from Heller to get it up to 50. When his list had 41 predictions, Perry wrote, "For more than 50 years Climate Alarmists in the scientific community and environmental movement have not gotten even one prediction correct, but they do have a perfect record of getting 41 predictions wrong. In other words, on at least 41 occasions, these so-called experts have predicted some terrible environmental catastrophe was imminent... and it never happened. And not once — not even once!" The logic of this is bafflingly stupid, even if we accept his opinions on these predictions at face value. If there are 41 (updated to 50) failed predictions on this list, that doesn't indicate a ...

Cliff Harris and Randy Mann promote themselves as climatologists and meteorologists that interpret "weather and Bible prophecy" for the benefit of us all today. They even have a self-published Amazon book  published in 2015 on the subject. In the book, the authors claim to have 60 years experience studying the Bible, weather, and climate, and the low price of $1.99, they will share with you this knowledge so you can have a "joyful, peaceful, and successful life on Earth," at least until you're raptured off the Earth before the "tribulation period." So what can we learn from these scholars in Bible, weather, and climate prophecies? It's hard to say, because it changes pretty frequently. They periodically publish their climate history of global temperatures , now with prophecies through 2040, but it changes on a near-annual basis. Since the wayback machine keeps a record of past versions of their graph, we can look at them and see how they change the...

One of the main reasons why most of our GMST datasets go back only to 1850 is that we don't have enough SST measurements prior to 1850 to calculate GMST anomalies with a confidence interval small enough to be useful. However, ships did record surface air temperatures at least back into the 1780s. Recently the Global Surface Air Temperature project ( GloSAT ) digitized records of marine air temperatures taken on ships to form the GloSAT dataset, which contains near surface air temperatures back to 1781. Ed Hawkins, who worked on the project, has a good post describing the results of the project. The GloSAT database only goes to 2021, so I have included HadCRUT5 so that you can see the close agreement between the two. I find it interesting that the GloSAT dataset captures a little more variability in GMAT in the late 19th century, though trends are not that different between the two. The 95% confidence intervals for annual means are less than 0.3°C for most of the 18th century, exce...