Posts

Responding to the CO2 Coalition's "Fact #23" on Corn Yields

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CO2 Coalition 's " Fact 23 " claims that "CO2 increase is enhancing corn production" by a lot. This is such an astounding fact that CO2 Coalition devoted a whole sentence to defend its claim. "In the United States, corn production (bushels per acre) is steadily increasing as CO2 levels increase. This steady and continued increase cannot be explained simply by better technology." Here's the graph they show to support this from Nielson 2020 , which is an article posted on Purdue's website. The article says nothing about CO2. Instead, it says that corn yields were positively affected by several "miracles" that resulted in three stages of corn yields. Corn yields were stagnant from 1866-1936 until the rapid adoption of hybrid corn. Rapid adoption of double-cross hybrid corn by American farmers began in the late 1930's, in the waning years of the U.S. Dust Bowl and Great Depression. Within a very few years after that, the national yiel

Responding to the CO2 Coalition's "Facts #22 and #24" on Ideal Temperature

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CO2 Coalition 's " Fact #22 " and " Fact #24 " are designed to make you think that warm is better than cold for global temperatures and climate scientists like Michael Mann we should return the Earth's temperature to an "ideal" temperature during the Little Ice Age (LIA). In their "fact #22," they claim that "The most dramatic advances in civilization took place during the last four warm periods—including our own. The advancement of science, technology and the arts have been directly linked to warmer weather." To support this, they show a graph of Greenland Summit temperatures from the GISP2 ice core.   I've  pointed out elsewhere  many of the problems they have when they use this graph to confuse local with global temperatures and misplot "current temperatures" from Box 2009. But here they add another layer of confusion to the claims they've made before because none of these "advancements in science, tech

Responding to the CO2 Coalition's "Fact #21" on Climate Models

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CO2 Coalition 's " Fact #21 " claims that "IPCC models have overstated warming by up to three time too much." According to this claim to fact, John Christy's testimony on "February 2016 to the U.S. House Committee on Science, Space & Technology included remarkable charts that document just how much the models overestimate temperatures. The red line in the chart shows the average of 102 climate model runs completed by Christy and his team at the University of Alabama at Huntsville using the models on which the IPCC itself relies. Also shown on the chart are the actual, observed temperatures. The models exaggerate warming, on average, two and a half times the actual temperature (or three times over in the climate-crucial tropics). Here's the graph they use to support this claim. The above graph reports to show 32 models and 102 model runs within the CMIP5 model ensemble. They are limited to those runs in the KNMI Climate Explorer. The models are s

Responding to the CO2 Coalition's "Fact #15" on Eemian Warmth

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CO2 Coalition 's " Fact #15 " wants us to believe that temperatures even 8°C warmer than today would be just fine for humanity. In order to make that claim, they need to perform a few tricks. The first trick is to make that 8°C Greenland temperatures instead of global temperatures. The second trick is to redefine  "today" as "the mean of the past millennium." Here's how they say it The results revealed that the Eemian interglacial warm period, between 130,000 and 115,000 years ago, was much warmer than previously thought. In fact, it was, 8°C (14.4°F) warmer than today. Their source for this is Dahl-Jensen 2013[1], which details the results of the new North Greenland Eemian (NEEM) Ice Drilling ice core. The paper concludes: NEEM surface temperatures after the onset of the Eemian (126,000 years ago) peaked at 8 ± 4 degrees Celsius above the mean of the past millennium, followed by a gradual cooling that was probably driven by the decreasing summer i

Responding to the CO2 Coalition's "Fact #32" on Glacier Bay Melting

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CO2 Coalition's " Fact #32 " tries to make a point from Glacier Bay's glacial history. They feel like since glaciers have retreated in  Glacier Bay since the late 1700s, that this is some how an argument that humans aren't causing the planet to warm. Here's a map with annotations from the CO2 Coalition. The declarations of what is "natural melting" and "man-made melting" are simply the opinions of CO2 Coalition. The map as published by the USGS looks like this. The figure's description describes how the southern terminus positions have changed since 1794, but interestingly I can find nothing this description or associated text any reference to the attribution of when the retreat was "natural" and when it transitioned to "man-made." All that appears to be made up by the CO2 Coalition. Here's the description: Location map of Glacier Bay National Park showing terminus positions and dates of retreat of the Little Ic

Responding to the CO2 Coalition's "Fact #11" on Mountain Glacier Melting

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CO2 Coalition 's " Fact #11 " (together with " Fact #12 ") claim that a "tipping point" occurred in 1800 that caused mountain glaciers to melt (and sea levels to rise), and since this "tipping point" occurred before major increases in CO2, both the glacial melting and sea level rise "are directly the result of the natural warming that began in the late 17th-century." They assert that glacial retreat (and sea level rise) "continues at about the same rate today as it was 150 years ago." The graph they use to support this claim was taken from Oerlemans 2005[1] with their own annotations. The paper they reference is pretty interesting, though there is absolutely no claim in the paper of any "tipping point" in 1800, and the "190-year trend of glacier shortening" is an annotation of CO2 Coalition, not a claim of the paper. The actual graph from the paper shows no "tipping point" but a gradual accele

Responding to the CO2 Coalition's "Fact #18" on Milankovich Cycles

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CO2 Coalition 's " Fact #18 " is also mostly trivial save for an implication they make from it that is really just a non sequitur . The  Milankovich Cycles (sometimes stated simply as orbital cycles) have to do with cyclical variability in the shape of the Earth's orbit or the tilt and wobble of the Earth's axis. They are: Eccentricity - cyclical variability in the shape of the Earth's orbit. Due to the gravitational pull of Jupiter and Saturn, the shape of the Earth's orbit becomes more circular (eccentricity of 0.0034) to more elliptical (eccentricity of 0.058) every 100,000 years. Obliquity - cyclical variability in the tilt of the Earth's axis, which varies between 22.1 and 24.5 degrees with respect to the Earth's orbital plane every 41,000 years. The more tilted the Earth's axis of rotation, the more extreme seasonal variability becomes. Each hemisphere experiences hotter summers and colder winters. Precession - cyclical variability in